Children who start school developmentally on track do not have the same likelihood of remaining on track by Grade 3, with learners in no-fee and low-fee school at far greater risk of falling behind.
This is a key finding from the fourth and final wave of the Roots & Shoots study, a longitudinal study that followed learners across 75 public primary schools in five Western Cape education districts: Metro Central, Metro East, Metro North, Metro South and Cape Winelands.
The study began in 2022 with 557 Grade R learners and assessed 401 learners again in Grade 3 in 2025. Of the 75 schools in the study, 68, or 91%, serve historically disadvantaged communities and either charge no fees or very low fees.
By Grade 3, 92% of learners in mid-fee schools reached the Grade 3 reading benchmark, compared with 49% in no-fee schools and 36% in low-fee schools.
The four-year study shows that learning gaps are already visible when children enter school and remain in place by the end of the Foundation Phase. It also shows that while school readiness is essential, it is not enough on its own to keep children on track.
Among learners observed in both the first and fourth waves, the proportion classified as on track shifted from 56% to 40% in no-fee schools and from 58% to 32% in low-fee schools. In mid-fee schools, it remained comparatively stable, moving from 88% to 90%.
“School-readiness is necessary but not sufficient. Even when children start school developmentally on track, many in poorer schools fall behind. Expanding access to quality early learning is essential but on its own it will not get learners to grade level by Grade 3.
Without improvements in the quality of teaching and learning in the Foundation Phase, there is a ceiling on what early-childhood interventions alone can achieve,” said Octavius Phukubye, Mr Price Foundation Director.
The study further emphasises that early learning should be treated as a continuum wherein early gains are protected or sustained from early childhood development state, through to Grade R until Grade 3 to avoid losing the potential of children.
“We have followed the same learners from Grade R through to Grade 3, which gives us a much clearer picture of how learning develops over time,” said Dr Heleen Hofmeyr, lead researcher at Stellenbosch University. “What the findings show is that early advantage is not equally sustained. School context appears to play an important role in whether children remain on track as they move through the Foundation Phase.”
Following the same learners from Grade R to Grade 3
The Roots & Shoots study began in 2022 with 557 Grade R learners across 75 public primary schools in the Cape Winelands, Metro Central, Metro East, Metro North and Metro South districts in and around Cape Town. By Wave 4, conducted in Term 3 of 2025, 401 learners were assessed again, with the main cohort having progressed to Grade 3.
Following the same cohort over four waves gives researchers a view of how learning develops from the beginning of Grade R through the Foundation Phase, rather than comparing different groups of children at different stages.
The study includes schools across different socioeconomic, language and school contexts. While the sample is not intended to be representative of the Western Cape or South Africa as a whole, it provides evidence of how differently learning trajectories can unfold across school communities.
By Grade 3, learners in mid-fee schools substantially outperformed those in no-fee and low-fee schools in both literacy and mathematics. The research also identified a gender gap in literacy, with 60% of girls reaching the Grade 3 literacy benchmark compared with 42% of boys. There was little evidence of a comparable gender gap in mathematics.
The links between socioeconomic context, early education quality and learning gaps are not unique to South Africa. International evidence also shows that school readiness alone does not guarantee later success.
Studies in the United States suggest that early developmental and preschool advantages are only sustained when children transition into high-quality primary school environments; where instructional quality is weak, many initially on-track learners fall behind over time.
Noting the impact of socioeconomic context on the learner journey, a Princeton University study also points out the ‘persistent gaps in school readiness between children from poorer and wealthier families’.
And in support of the critical need to invest in teacher and school quality, a Tennessee-based study noted that ‘neither exposure to highly effective teachers nor attending a high-quality school was sufficient by itself to explain differences in achievement between (third-grade learners who had attended preschool and those who hadn’t),’ but that evidence showed how ‘having both was associated with a sustained advantage for (preschool) participants in both math and English Learning Arts’.
The implications extend beyond access to ECD. Quality early learning depends on capable, well-supported educators and school environments, particularly in no-fee and low-fee schools where the developmental and learning gaps are greatest. Resources also need to respond to different starting points, with funding, coaching and learner support concentrated where children face the greatest risk of falling behind.
The research strengthens Mr Price Foundation’s case for treating ECD and the Foundation Phase as one continuous learning journey. Findings are directly informing the organisation’s education strategy and investment decisions, reinforcing the importance of targeted, evidence-based interventions to improve foundational learning outcomes.
The Foundation has intensified its focus on strengthening literacy and numeracy through a combination of early learning initiatives, remedial support programmes, and system-level interventions in underserved communities.
An investment of R1.2 million in Early Childhood Development (ECD) Learning Hubs aims to improve school readiness by providing quality early learning programmes, while also offering structured after-school support to address literacy and numeracy gaps before they become entrenched.
The Foundation has introduced Remedial Champions, a targeted intervention which seeks to improve literacy and numeracy outcomes in the Foundation Phase. The programme equips leaders of afterschool programmes to provide intensive, learner-focused support to children who are not meeting age-appropriate benchmarks, helping them build critical foundational skills and get back on track academically.
Recognising that sustainable improvement depends on strengthening teaching practice and classroom instruction, the Mr Price Foundation is also facilitating Professional Learning Communities (PLCs), where, through peer learning, teachers are equipped to identify learning gaps, implement effective remedial strategies, and enhance instructional practice, with a particular focus on literacy and numeracy. Together, these interventions reflect the Foundation’s commitment to translating research into action, ensuring that investments are directed towards programmes that deliver measurable improvements in learning outcomes.
The findings also strengthen the case for coordinated action between government, researchers, implementers, funders, business and civil society. The government has a central role in creating coherence across the system, while partners can support innovation, implementation, measurement and investment aligned with public education priorities.
The full Roots & Shoots Wave 4 report is available at [https://www.rootsandshootsstudy.com/outputs].
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